boulez elude: Florida: Mack has big lead in Florida GOP primary, ties Nelson; Florida voters stand their ground

May 24, 2012 - Mack Has Big Lead In Florida GOP Primary, Ties Nelson, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Florida Voters Stand Their Ground
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U.S. Rep. Connie Mack holds a wide lead in the race for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, getting 40 percent of the vote to 7 percent for former Sen. George LeMieux and 8 percent for Tea party favorite Mike McCalister, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 41 percent are undecided.

A general election matchup is too close to call as Mack gets 42 percent to Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson's 41 percent. Gov. Rick Scott's job approval has risen above 40 percent for the first time, although he still remains underwater with a negative 41 - 46 percent rating from voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. A majority of registered voters, 56 - 35 percent, support the state's "Stand Your Ground" law that has come under recent scrutiny. Support is 78 - 15 percent among Republicans and 58 - 35 percent among independent voters while Democrats are opposed 59 - 32 percent. Men support "Stand Your Ground" 65 - 31 percent while women support it 48 - 39 percent. Support is 61 - 31 percent among white voters and 53 - 36 percent among Hispanic voters while black voters are opposed 56 - 30 percent. "Although some activists have been critical of Congressman Connie Mack and his campaign, he retains an overwhelming lead in the race for the Republican Senate nomination and is tied with Sen. Bill Nelson," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It is not clear how the late entrance of former Congressman Dave Weldon into the race will affect the campaign, but Mack's lead is pretty formidable with three months until the primary." Weldon was not included in the names of candidates offered survey respondents because he had not made clear his intention to run when the poll began. The too-close-to-call November Senate matchup compares to Nelson's 44 - 36 percent lead in a March 29 Quinnipiac University poll. Today, Nelson leads LeMieux 43 - 36 percent. Gov. Scott's slight improvement in the public eye is built on a 66 - 22 percent approval rating among Republicans. Disapproval is 74 - 14 percent among Democrats and 45 - 40 percent among independent voters. Scott runs even among men who give him a 46 - 44 percent score, while women turn thumbs down 48 - 36 percent. "Although Gov. Rick Scott's numbers aren't that impressive, they are a step up for him - the first time he has gotten his approval rating out of the 30s since taking office," Brown said. "His best previous score was 50 - 38 percent disapproval in January." The Trayvon Martin shooting has brought the issue of gun control and the state's "Stand Your Ground" law into the public eye. By 51 - 45 percent, voters oppose stricter gun control laws in the state with a huge partisan split and gender gap. Democrats favor stricter gun control 73 - 23 percent, while Republicans oppose the idea 74 - 22 percent. Independent voters oppose stricter gun control 51 - 42 percent. Women want stronger gun control 54 - 41 percent, while men are opposed 62 - 34 percent. "Despite the controversy, public opinion seems to be solidly behind 'Stand Your Ground' and slightly against stricter gun control," said Brown. On one area there was support for more gun control. By 83 - 14 percent, voters don't think even people with concealed weapons permits should be allowed to bring a gun into the State Capitol. By a narrow 49 - 46 percent margin, Florida voters disagree with Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn who wants guns banned from downtown Tampa during the Republican convention. From May 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,722 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 742 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Connie Mack, George LeMieux and Mike McCalister, for whom would you vote?

                      REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....................................                                                         BornAgnEv     TEA PARTY                      Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No   Mack                 40%    45%    35%    43%    37%    39%    42%    45%    38% LeMieux               7      9      6     10      3      7     10     10      6 McCalister            8     11      4      7     10      6      8     10      6 SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      -      2      -      2      2      1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      2      3      2      2      3      1      4 DK/NA                41     29     53     38     45     45     35     32     45

TREND: (If Registered Republican)If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were: Connie Mack, George LeMieux and Mike McCalister, for whom would you vote? (na=not asked, 2011 wording referenced "2012 election")

                      REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........................                      May 24  Jan 11  Nov 11  Sep 22  Aug 04  May 26                      2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011   Mack                 40      39      32      na      na      na LeMieux               7       6       9      17      12      14 McCalister            8       6       6      11      15      na Haridopolos          na      na      na      na      na      13 Hasner               na       2       2       5       6       4 Miller               na       1       2       5       8      na SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       2       1       3       2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       4       3       4       4 DK/NA                41      42      45      58      53      64

9. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Connie Mack the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Nelson               41%     7%    84%    37%    39%    43%    35%    79%    36% Mack                 42     84      4     35     47     37     48      5     44 SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      -      1      -      - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      -      3      1      3      2      1      2 DK/NA                15      6     11     23     13     16     14     15     17                        WHITE..............................................                      COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry                      Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold   Nelson               41%    32%    27%    29%    33%    37%    23%    33%    35% Mack                 47     49     59     54     54     43     63     50     50 SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      1      1      -      1      1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      1      2      1      3      1      2      2 DK/NA                10     15     12     14     11     16     12     15     12                        COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......                      Yes    No     100K  18-34  35-54  55+   Nelson               46%    39%    45%    46%    39%    37%    37%    45%    41% Mack                 41     42     32     36     50     56     30     43     46 SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      -      -      1      -      1      - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      3      2      1      1      2      2      1 DK/NA                10     16     19     15     11      5     30      9     11

TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Connie Mack the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")

                      May 24  Mar 29  Jan 11  Nov 11                      2012    2012    2012    2011   Nelson               41      44      41      42% Mack                 42      36      40      40 SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2       1 DK/NA                15      17      16      16

10. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and George LeMieux the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Nelson               43%     9%    86%    38%    38%    47%    37%    84%    38% LeMieux              36     76      3     29     43     30     42      3     40 SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      -      -      -      - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1      2      1      2      1      1      2 DK/NA                19     13     10     29     17     21     20     11     19                        WHITE..............................................                      COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry                      Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold   Nelson               43%    34%    30%    30%    34%    39%    25%    34%    37% LeMieux              42     42     51     49     48     35     56     43     44 SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      1      1      2      -      2      1 DK/NA                13     23     19     20     17     23     19     21     17                        COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......                      Yes    No     100K  18-34  35-54  55+   Nelson               49%    40%    48%    47%    42%    39%    39%    46%    43% LeMieux              36     36     26     30     43     50     26     40     39 SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      -      -      -      -      1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      2      2      1      -      1      1      2 DK/NA                13     21     23     22     14     11     34     13     16

TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat, and George LeMieux the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")

                      May 24  May 26                      2012    2011   Nelson               43      47 LeMieux              36      27  SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       2  WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       2  DK/NA                19      22

11. Is your opinion of Connie Mack favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Favorable            32%    56%    12%    29%    38%    27%    35%    10%    40% Unfavorable          16      6     28     16     17     16     17     20     10 Hvn't hrd enough     50     35     59     53     44     55     46     68     49 REFUSED               2      2      1      1      1      2      2      2      1

TREND: Is your opinion of Connie Mack favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      May 24  Jan 11                      2012    2012   Favorable            32      32 Unfavorable          16      13 Hvn't hrd enough     50      54 REFUSED               2       1

12. Is your opinion of George LeMieux favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Favorable            13%    26%     2%    11%    17%    10%    14%     3%    20% Unfavorable          11      5     17     13     13      9     10     16     11 Hvn't hrd enough     75     68     80     76     69     80     75     81     68 REFUSED               1      2      -      1      1      1      1      -      1

13. Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Favorable            39%    15%    68%    38%    38%    39%    36%    66%    29% Unfavorable          28     52      6     25     34     23     34      7     21 Hvn't hrd enough     31     30     26     35     26     35     28     26     48 REFUSED               2      3      1      2      2      2      2      1      2

TREND: Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      May 24  Jan 11  Feb 3                      2012    2012    2011                                       Favorable            39      41      39  Unfavorable          28      23      23  Hvn't hrd enough     31      35      36  REFUSED               2       1       2

14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Approve              41%    66%    14%    40%    46%    36%    46%    21%    34% Disapprove           46     22     74     45     44     48     43     61     48 DK/NA                13     12     12     15     10     16     11     18     18                        North/                             AREA...............                      Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE   Urban  Suburb Rural   Approve              50%    44%    40%    51%    29%    35%    43%    49% Disapprove           38     49     43     41     54     51     47     35 DK/NA                12      8     16      8     17     14     11     16

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor?

                                                              APPROVE.......                                                              High    Low                      May 24  Mar 28  Jan 26  Jan 10  Dec 08  May 24  May 25                      2012    2012    2012    2012    2011    2012    2011                                                                       Approve              41      36      36      38      33      41      29 Disapprove           46      52      49      50      52      46      57 DK/NA                13      13      15      13      15      13      14

15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Approve              31%    50%    18%    26%    34%    28%    34%    19%    32% Disapprove           48     31     64     51     49     47     47     60     43 DK/NA                21     20     18     22     16     24     20     22     24                        North/                             AREA...............                      Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE   Urban  Suburb Rural   Approve              33%    34%    33%    37%    24%    29%    33%    33% Disapprove           47     48     45     42     54     51     46     45 DK/NA                20     17     22     21     22     20     20     22

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                                                              APPROVE.......                                                              High    Low                      May 24  Jan 26  Jan 10  Aug 05  May 25  Sep 23  May 25                      2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2004    2011                               Approve              31      31      33      32      27      51      27 Disapprove           48      49      49      51      56      34      56 DK/NA                21      20      18      17      17      15      17

17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Approve              44%    19%    73%    42%    43%    44%    41%    63%    46% Disapprove           35     59     10     33     40     30     39     14     30 DK/NA                21     21     17     25     16     26     20     23     24                        WHITE..............................................                      COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry                      Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold   Approve              46%    38%    35%    36%    40%    42%    31%    39%    38% Disapprove           38     40     47     43     46     33     51     41     44 DK/NA                17     22     18     21     15     26     18     20     18                        COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......                      Yes    No     100K  18-34  35-54  55+   Approve              48%    42%    46%    44%    46%    46%    41%    49%    43% Disapprove           35     35     27     35     37     40     25     36     38 DK/NA                16     24     27     21     18     13     34     16     19

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 42% Aug 2004)

                                                              APPROVE.......                                                              High    Low                      May 24  Jan 26  Jan 10  Nov 11  Sep 22  Feb 06  Aug 04                      2012    2012    2012    2011    2011    2007    2011*                               Approve              44      43      47      47      45      54      42 Disapprove           35      30      30      27      32      18      35 DK/NA                21      27      23      26      23      28      23

19. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Very satisfied        4%     5%     5%     4%     6%     3%     4%     6%     4% Smwht satisfied      39     47     35     38     41     37     39     47     38 Smwht dissatisfied   30     27     32     29     27     32     31     24     25 Very dissatisfied    25     20     28     27     24     26     25     21     28 DK/NA                 2      1      1      2      2      2      1      3      4                        North/                             AREA...............                      Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE   Urban  Suburb Rural   Very satisfied        3%     5%     5%     5%     4%     6%     3%     3% Smwht satisfied      37     41     42     41     35     38     40     37 Smwht dissatisfied   34     30     30     27     27     27     32     32 Very dissatisfied    24     24     19     26     32     26     24     26 DK/NA                 2      -      3      -      2      3      1      1

TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? (*combined High also 63% Sep 2004)

                                                              VERY+SMWHT....                                                              High    Low                      May 24  Jan 10  Sep 22  Aug 05  May 25  Feb 24  Sep 22                      2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2005*   2011                                                                               Very satisfied        4       4       4       4       3      15       4     Smwht satisfied      39      38      31      33      36      48      31     Smwht dissatisfied   30      32      29      28      32      22      29     Very dissatisfied    25      24      34      33      29      15      34     DK/NA                 2       2       2       1       1       1       2

21. Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Yes/Deserves         40%    12%    74%    37%    38%    41%    36%    67%    36% No/Does not          39     69      8     40     47     33     45     11     37 DK/NA                21     19     18     23     15     26     19     22     27                        WHITE..............................................                      COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv  Miltry                      Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No  HsHold   Yes/Deserves         43%    32%    29%    32%    33%    39%    26%    34%    34% No/Does not          43     46     53     50     54     37     57     47     47 DK/NA                14     21     18     18     13     25     17     19     18                        COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......                      Yes    No     100K  18-34  35-54  55+   Yes/Deserves         47%    37%    43%    45%    39%    40%    35%    43%    41% No/Does not          38     40     32     35     44     46     33     42     40 DK/NA                15     24     25     20     16     14     32     16     19

TREND: Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

                                              DEBT DEAL.....  DESERVES......                                              Post    Pre     High    Low                      May 24  Jan 11  Sep 22  Aug 04  Aug 04  May 26  May 24                        2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2012                                                                                   Yes/Deserves         40      44      44      44      45      48      40       No/Does not          39      35      33      38      36      30      39       DK/NA                21      21      23      18      19      22      21

25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling the state budget?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Approve              37%    64%    11%    34%    44%    31%    43%    14%    30% Disapprove           48     23     76     49     44     52     44     68     52 DK/NA                14     13     13     17     12     16     13     18     18                        North/                             AREA...............                      Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE   Urban  Suburb Rural   Approve              47%    42%    37%    42%    25%    32%    39%    47% Disapprove           40     46     49     44     56     54     49     35 DK/NA                13     12     14     14     19     15     12     18

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling the state budget?

                      May 24  Jan 10  Sep 21  Aug 05  May 25  Apr 06                      2012    2012    2011    2011    2011    2011                               Approve              37      36      36      32      30      36 Disapprove           48      51      53      57      59      55 DK/NA                14      13      11      11      11       9

26. Do you think that Florida's economy has gotten better, worse or stayed about the same since Rick Scott took office?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Better               24%    38%    10%    24%    29%    19%    25%    15%    27% Worse                29     15     44     28     24     33     26     37     32 The same             42     42     41     42     42     41     43     42     37 DK/NA                 5      5      5      6      4      7      5      7      5                        North/                             AREA...............                      Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE   Urban  Suburb Rural   Better               27%    27%    21%    33%    20%    20%    27%    29% Worse                29     27     28     27     31     30     27     29 The same             38     42     46     36     41     44     41     36 DK/NA                 5      4      5      5      8      6      4      6

TREND: Do you think that Florida's economy has gotten better, worse or stayed about the same since Rick Scott took office?

                      May 24  Jan 10                      2012    2012                               Better               24      16 Worse                29      34  The same             42      45  DK/NA                 5       4

27a. (If economy better q26) Do you credit Barack Obama or Rick Scott more for this change?

                      ECONOMY BETTER Q26                      Tot    Men    Wom   Obama                16%    13%    19% Scott                76     77     74  NEITHER (VOL)         3      4      1  BOTH (VOL)            3      3      2  DK/NA                 3      2      4

TREND: (If "Better") Do you credit Barack Obama or Rick Scott more for this change?

                      BETTER........                      May 24  Jan 10                      2012    2012                               Obama                16      13 Scott                76      81  NEITHER (VOL)         3       2  BOTH (VOL)            3       1  DK/NA                 3       3

27b. (If economy worse q26) Do you blame Barack Obama or Rick Scott more for this change?

                      ECONOMY WORSE Q26                      Tot    Men    Wom   Obama                20%    22%    19% Scott                61     64     59  NEITHER (VOL)         6      7      6  BOTH (VOL)            8      6     10  DK/NA                 4      1      7

TREND: (If "Worse") Do you blame Barack Obama or Rick Scott more for this change?

                      WORSE.........                      May 24  Jan 10                      2012    2012                               Obama                20      19 Scott                61      65  NEITHER (VOL)         6       7  BOTH (VOL)            8       4  DK/NA                 4       4

35. Do you favor or oppose stricter gun control laws in Florida?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Favor                45%    22%    73%    42%    34%    54%    40%    63%    48% Oppose               51     74     23     51     62     41     56     28     48 DK/NA                 5      4      4      7      4      5      4      9      3                        North/                             AREA...............                      Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE   Urban  Suburb Rural   Favor                35%    42%    44%    47%    54%    50%    45%    32% Oppose               59     53     52     50     41     46     51     63 DK/NA                 6      5      5      4      5      4      5      5

36. Under Florida law people who hold a concealed weapons permit are allowed to carry a gun most places in the state. Do you think people who hold a concealed weapons permit should be allowed to bring a gun into the State Capitol Building in Tallahassee, or don't you think so?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Yes                  14%    18%     7%    14%    17%    11%    14%    10%    14% No                   83     77     91     84     79     87     82     89     85 DK/NA                 3      4      2      2      4      3      4      1      -                        North/                             AREA...............                      Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE   Urban  Suburb Rural   Yes                  17%    11%    14%    10%    14%    12%    14%    17% No                   77     86     84     90     83     86     83     78 DK/NA                 6      3      2      1      3      2      3      5

37. As you may know, the Republican national convention is being held in Tampa in August. Do you think the state should temporarily ban guns in downtown Tampa during the convention, or don't you think so?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Yes                  46%    34%    61%    46%    38%    54%    44%    54%    51% No                   49     61     34     51     59     41     51     39     47 DK/NA                 4      5      5      4      4      5      5      7      2                        North/                             AREA...............                      Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE   Urban  Suburb Rural   Yes                  36%    52%    46%    51%    49%    52%    43%    39% No                   57     46     49     45     47     44     54     55 DK/NA                 7      2      5      3      4      5      3      6

38. Florida has a law that says a person is legally entitled to fight back with deadly force if they feel threatened, even if they could retreat instead. Do you support or oppose that law?

                      Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp   Support              56%    78%    32%    58%    65%    48%    61%    30%    53% Oppose               35     15     59     35     31     39     31     56     36 DK/NA                 8      7      9      8      4     12      7     14     11                        North/                             AREA...............                      Panhd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE   Urban  Suburb Rural   Support              65%    59%    57%    57%    46%    50%    58%    67% Oppose               30     33     34     32     44     39     37     26 DK/NA                 6      8      9     11     10     12      6      6

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boulez elude

Saturday, May 26, 2012

Florida: Mack has big lead in Florida GOP primary, ties Nelson; Florida voters stand their ground

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