May 24, 2012 - Mack Has Big Lead In Florida GOP Primary, Ties Nelson, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Florida Voters Stand Their Ground
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U.S. Rep. Connie Mack holds a wide lead in the race for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, getting 40 percent of the vote to 7 percent for former Sen. George LeMieux and 8 percent for Tea party favorite Mike McCalister, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 41 percent are undecided.
A general election matchup is too close to call as Mack gets 42 percent to Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson's 41 percent. Gov. Rick Scott's job approval has risen above 40 percent for the first time, although he still remains underwater with a negative 41 - 46 percent rating from voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. A majority of registered voters, 56 - 35 percent, support the state's "Stand Your Ground" law that has come under recent scrutiny. Support is 78 - 15 percent among Republicans and 58 - 35 percent among independent voters while Democrats are opposed 59 - 32 percent. Men support "Stand Your Ground" 65 - 31 percent while women support it 48 - 39 percent. Support is 61 - 31 percent among white voters and 53 - 36 percent among Hispanic voters while black voters are opposed 56 - 30 percent. "Although some activists have been critical of Congressman Connie Mack and his campaign, he retains an overwhelming lead in the race for the Republican Senate nomination and is tied with Sen. Bill Nelson," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It is not clear how the late entrance of former Congressman Dave Weldon into the race will affect the campaign, but Mack's lead is pretty formidable with three months until the primary." Weldon was not included in the names of candidates offered survey respondents because he had not made clear his intention to run when the poll began. The too-close-to-call November Senate matchup compares to Nelson's 44 - 36 percent lead in a March 29 Quinnipiac University poll. Today, Nelson leads LeMieux 43 - 36 percent. Gov. Scott's slight improvement in the public eye is built on a 66 - 22 percent approval rating among Republicans. Disapproval is 74 - 14 percent among Democrats and 45 - 40 percent among independent voters. Scott runs even among men who give him a 46 - 44 percent score, while women turn thumbs down 48 - 36 percent. "Although Gov. Rick Scott's numbers aren't that impressive, they are a step up for him - the first time he has gotten his approval rating out of the 30s since taking office," Brown said. "His best previous score was 50 - 38 percent disapproval in January." The Trayvon Martin shooting has brought the issue of gun control and the state's "Stand Your Ground" law into the public eye. By 51 - 45 percent, voters oppose stricter gun control laws in the state with a huge partisan split and gender gap. Democrats favor stricter gun control 73 - 23 percent, while Republicans oppose the idea 74 - 22 percent. Independent voters oppose stricter gun control 51 - 42 percent. Women want stronger gun control 54 - 41 percent, while men are opposed 62 - 34 percent. "Despite the controversy, public opinion seems to be solidly behind 'Stand Your Ground' and slightly against stricter gun control," said Brown. On one area there was support for more gun control. By 83 - 14 percent, voters don't think even people with concealed weapons permits should be allowed to bring a gun into the State Capitol. By a narrow 49 - 46 percent margin, Florida voters disagree with Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn who wants guns banned from downtown Tampa during the Republican convention. From May 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,722 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 742 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Connie Mack, George LeMieux and Mike McCalister, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....................................
BornAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No
Mack 40% 45% 35% 43% 37% 39% 42% 45% 38%
LeMieux 7 9 6 10 3 7 10 10 6
McCalister 8 11 4 7 10 6 8 10 6
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - - 2 - 2 2 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 3 2 2 3 1 4
DK/NA 41 29 53 38 45 45 35 32 45
TREND: (If Registered Republican)If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were: Connie Mack, George LeMieux and Mike McCalister, for whom would you vote? (na=not asked, 2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........................
May 24 Jan 11 Nov 11 Sep 22 Aug 04 May 26
2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011
Mack 40 39 32 na na na
LeMieux 7 6 9 17 12 14
McCalister 8 6 6 11 15 na
Haridopolos na na na na na 13
Hasner na 2 2 5 6 4
Miller na 1 2 5 8 na
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 3 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 4 3 4 4
DK/NA 41 42 45 58 53 64
9. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Connie Mack the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Nelson 41% 7% 84% 37% 39% 43% 35% 79% 36%
Mack 42 84 4 35 47 37 48 5 44
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - 1 - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 1 3 2 1 2
DK/NA 15 6 11 23 13 16 14 15 17
WHITE..............................................
COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Miltry
Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHold
Nelson 41% 32% 27% 29% 33% 37% 23% 33% 35%
Mack 47 49 59 54 54 43 63 50 50
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 2
DK/NA 10 15 12 14 11 16 12 15 12
COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS.......
Yes No 100K 18-34 35-54 55+
Nelson 46% 39% 45% 46% 39% 37% 37% 45% 41%
Mack 41 42 32 36 50 56 30 43 46
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - - 1 - 1 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 1 1 2 2 1
DK/NA 10 16 19 15 11 5 30 9 11
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Connie Mack the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
May 24 Mar 29 Jan 11 Nov 11
2012 2012 2012 2011
Nelson 41 44 41 42%
Mack 42 36 40 40
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1
DK/NA 15 17 16 16
10. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and George LeMieux the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Nelson 43% 9% 86% 38% 38% 47% 37% 84% 38%
LeMieux 36 76 3 29 43 30 42 3 40
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2
DK/NA 19 13 10 29 17 21 20 11 19
WHITE..............................................
COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Miltry
Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHold
Nelson 43% 34% 30% 30% 34% 39% 25% 34% 37%
LeMieux 42 42 51 49 48 35 56 43 44
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 2 - 2 1
DK/NA 13 23 19 20 17 23 19 21 17
COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS.......
Yes No 100K 18-34 35-54 55+
Nelson 49% 40% 48% 47% 42% 39% 39% 46% 43%
LeMieux 36 36 26 30 43 50 26 40 39
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 - 1 1 2
DK/NA 13 21 23 22 14 11 34 13 16
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat, and George LeMieux the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
May 24 May 26
2012 2011
Nelson 43 47
LeMieux 36 27
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2
DK/NA 19 22
11. Is your opinion of Connie Mack favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Favorable 32% 56% 12% 29% 38% 27% 35% 10% 40%
Unfavorable 16 6 28 16 17 16 17 20 10
Hvn't hrd enough 50 35 59 53 44 55 46 68 49
REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Connie Mack favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 24 Jan 11
2012 2012
Favorable 32 32
Unfavorable 16 13
Hvn't hrd enough 50 54
REFUSED 2 1
12. Is your opinion of George LeMieux favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Favorable 13% 26% 2% 11% 17% 10% 14% 3% 20%
Unfavorable 11 5 17 13 13 9 10 16 11
Hvn't hrd enough 75 68 80 76 69 80 75 81 68
REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 - 1
13. Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Favorable 39% 15% 68% 38% 38% 39% 36% 66% 29%
Unfavorable 28 52 6 25 34 23 34 7 21
Hvn't hrd enough 31 30 26 35 26 35 28 26 48
REFUSED 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 24 Jan 11 Feb 3
2012 2012 2011
Favorable 39 41 39
Unfavorable 28 23 23
Hvn't hrd enough 31 35 36
REFUSED 2 1 2
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Approve 41% 66% 14% 40% 46% 36% 46% 21% 34%
Disapprove 46 22 74 45 44 48 43 61 48
DK/NA 13 12 12 15 10 16 11 18 18
North/ AREA...............
Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Urban Suburb Rural
Approve 50% 44% 40% 51% 29% 35% 43% 49%
Disapprove 38 49 43 41 54 51 47 35
DK/NA 12 8 16 8 17 14 11 16
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor?
APPROVE.......
High Low
May 24 Mar 28 Jan 26 Jan 10 Dec 08 May 24 May 25
2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2012 2011
Approve 41 36 36 38 33 41 29
Disapprove 46 52 49 50 52 46 57
DK/NA 13 13 15 13 15 13 14
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Approve 31% 50% 18% 26% 34% 28% 34% 19% 32%
Disapprove 48 31 64 51 49 47 47 60 43
DK/NA 21 20 18 22 16 24 20 22 24
North/ AREA...............
Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Urban Suburb Rural
Approve 33% 34% 33% 37% 24% 29% 33% 33%
Disapprove 47 48 45 42 54 51 46 45
DK/NA 20 17 22 21 22 20 20 22
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE.......
High Low
May 24 Jan 26 Jan 10 Aug 05 May 25 Sep 23 May 25
2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2004 2011
Approve 31 31 33 32 27 51 27
Disapprove 48 49 49 51 56 34 56
DK/NA 21 20 18 17 17 15 17
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Approve 44% 19% 73% 42% 43% 44% 41% 63% 46%
Disapprove 35 59 10 33 40 30 39 14 30
DK/NA 21 21 17 25 16 26 20 23 24
WHITE..............................................
COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Miltry
Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHold
Approve 46% 38% 35% 36% 40% 42% 31% 39% 38%
Disapprove 38 40 47 43 46 33 51 41 44
DK/NA 17 22 18 21 15 26 18 20 18
COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS.......
Yes No 100K 18-34 35-54 55+
Approve 48% 42% 46% 44% 46% 46% 41% 49% 43%
Disapprove 35 35 27 35 37 40 25 36 38
DK/NA 16 24 27 21 18 13 34 16 19
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 42% Aug 2004)
APPROVE.......
High Low
May 24 Jan 26 Jan 10 Nov 11 Sep 22 Feb 06 Aug 04
2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2007 2011*
Approve 44 43 47 47 45 54 42
Disapprove 35 30 30 27 32 18 35
DK/NA 21 27 23 26 23 28 23
19. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Very satisfied 4% 5% 5% 4% 6% 3% 4% 6% 4%
Smwht satisfied 39 47 35 38 41 37 39 47 38
Smwht dissatisfied 30 27 32 29 27 32 31 24 25
Very dissatisfied 25 20 28 27 24 26 25 21 28
DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 3 4
North/ AREA...............
Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Urban Suburb Rural
Very satisfied 3% 5% 5% 5% 4% 6% 3% 3%
Smwht satisfied 37 41 42 41 35 38 40 37
Smwht dissatisfied 34 30 30 27 27 27 32 32
Very dissatisfied 24 24 19 26 32 26 24 26
DK/NA 2 - 3 - 2 3 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? (*combined High also 63% Sep 2004)
VERY+SMWHT....
High Low
May 24 Jan 10 Sep 22 Aug 05 May 25 Feb 24 Sep 22
2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2005* 2011
Very satisfied 4 4 4 4 3 15 4
Smwht satisfied 39 38 31 33 36 48 31
Smwht dissatisfied 30 32 29 28 32 22 29
Very dissatisfied 25 24 34 33 29 15 34
DK/NA 2 2 2 1 1 1 2
21. Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Yes/Deserves 40% 12% 74% 37% 38% 41% 36% 67% 36%
No/Does not 39 69 8 40 47 33 45 11 37
DK/NA 21 19 18 23 15 26 19 22 27
WHITE..............................................
COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Miltry
Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHold
Yes/Deserves 43% 32% 29% 32% 33% 39% 26% 34% 34%
No/Does not 43 46 53 50 54 37 57 47 47
DK/NA 14 21 18 18 13 25 17 19 18
COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS.......
Yes No 100K 18-34 35-54 55+
Yes/Deserves 47% 37% 43% 45% 39% 40% 35% 43% 41%
No/Does not 38 40 32 35 44 46 33 42 40
DK/NA 15 24 25 20 16 14 32 16 19
TREND: Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
DEBT DEAL..... DESERVES......
Post Pre High Low
May 24 Jan 11 Sep 22 Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 May 24
2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012
Yes/Deserves 40 44 44 44 45 48 40
No/Does not 39 35 33 38 36 30 39
DK/NA 21 21 23 18 19 22 21
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling the state budget?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Approve 37% 64% 11% 34% 44% 31% 43% 14% 30%
Disapprove 48 23 76 49 44 52 44 68 52
DK/NA 14 13 13 17 12 16 13 18 18
North/ AREA...............
Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Urban Suburb Rural
Approve 47% 42% 37% 42% 25% 32% 39% 47%
Disapprove 40 46 49 44 56 54 49 35
DK/NA 13 12 14 14 19 15 12 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling the state budget?
May 24 Jan 10 Sep 21 Aug 05 May 25 Apr 06
2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011
Approve 37 36 36 32 30 36
Disapprove 48 51 53 57 59 55
DK/NA 14 13 11 11 11 9
26. Do you think that Florida's economy has gotten better, worse or stayed about the same since Rick Scott took office?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Better 24% 38% 10% 24% 29% 19% 25% 15% 27%
Worse 29 15 44 28 24 33 26 37 32
The same 42 42 41 42 42 41 43 42 37
DK/NA 5 5 5 6 4 7 5 7 5
North/ AREA...............
Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Urban Suburb Rural
Better 27% 27% 21% 33% 20% 20% 27% 29%
Worse 29 27 28 27 31 30 27 29
The same 38 42 46 36 41 44 41 36
DK/NA 5 4 5 5 8 6 4 6
TREND: Do you think that Florida's economy has gotten better, worse or stayed about the same since Rick Scott took office?
May 24 Jan 10
2012 2012
Better 24 16
Worse 29 34
The same 42 45
DK/NA 5 4
27a. (If economy better q26) Do you credit Barack Obama or Rick Scott more for this change?
ECONOMY BETTER Q26
Tot Men Wom
Obama 16% 13% 19%
Scott 76 77 74
NEITHER (VOL) 3 4 1
BOTH (VOL) 3 3 2
DK/NA 3 2 4
TREND: (If "Better") Do you credit Barack Obama or Rick Scott more for this change?
BETTER........
May 24 Jan 10
2012 2012
Obama 16 13
Scott 76 81
NEITHER (VOL) 3 2
BOTH (VOL) 3 1
DK/NA 3 3
27b. (If economy worse q26) Do you blame Barack Obama or Rick Scott more for this change?
ECONOMY WORSE Q26
Tot Men Wom
Obama 20% 22% 19%
Scott 61 64 59
NEITHER (VOL) 6 7 6
BOTH (VOL) 8 6 10
DK/NA 4 1 7
TREND: (If "Worse") Do you blame Barack Obama or Rick Scott more for this change?
WORSE.........
May 24 Jan 10
2012 2012
Obama 20 19
Scott 61 65
NEITHER (VOL) 6 7
BOTH (VOL) 8 4
DK/NA 4 4
35. Do you favor or oppose stricter gun control laws in Florida?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Favor 45% 22% 73% 42% 34% 54% 40% 63% 48%
Oppose 51 74 23 51 62 41 56 28 48
DK/NA 5 4 4 7 4 5 4 9 3
North/ AREA...............
Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Urban Suburb Rural
Favor 35% 42% 44% 47% 54% 50% 45% 32%
Oppose 59 53 52 50 41 46 51 63
DK/NA 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 5
36. Under Florida law people who hold a concealed weapons permit are allowed to carry a gun most places in the state. Do you think people who hold a concealed weapons permit should be allowed to bring a gun into the State Capitol Building in Tallahassee, or don't you think so?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Yes 14% 18% 7% 14% 17% 11% 14% 10% 14%
No 83 77 91 84 79 87 82 89 85
DK/NA 3 4 2 2 4 3 4 1 -
North/ AREA...............
Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Urban Suburb Rural
Yes 17% 11% 14% 10% 14% 12% 14% 17%
No 77 86 84 90 83 86 83 78
DK/NA 6 3 2 1 3 2 3 5
37. As you may know, the Republican national convention is being held in Tampa in August. Do you think the state should temporarily ban guns in downtown Tampa during the convention, or don't you think so?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Yes 46% 34% 61% 46% 38% 54% 44% 54% 51%
No 49 61 34 51 59 41 51 39 47
DK/NA 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 7 2
North/ AREA...............
Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Urban Suburb Rural
Yes 36% 52% 46% 51% 49% 52% 43% 39%
No 57 46 49 45 47 44 54 55
DK/NA 7 2 5 3 4 5 3 6
38. Florida has a law that says a person is legally entitled to fight back with deadly force if they feel threatened, even if they could retreat instead. Do you support or oppose that law?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp
Support 56% 78% 32% 58% 65% 48% 61% 30% 53%
Oppose 35 15 59 35 31 39 31 56 36
DK/NA 8 7 9 8 4 12 7 14 11
North/ AREA...............
Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Urban Suburb Rural
Support 65% 59% 57% 57% 46% 50% 58% 67%
Oppose 30 33 34 32 44 39 37 26
DK/NA 6 8 9 11 10 12 6 6
Demographic Summary
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